Embakasi East MP Babu Owino has weighed in on Raila Odinga’s defeat in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship race, reviving his infamous “long con” theory and igniting debate across the country.

Raila lost the AUC race to Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf in a tense, seven-round voting process held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Youssouf ultimately garnered the required 33 votes, leaving Raila short of the mark despite enjoying public support from President William Ruto.

Babu Owino’s Cryptic Message

Shortly after the results were announced, Babu Owino took to social media with a cryptic post that immediately caught the attention of netizens.

“This is a continuation of a LONG CON. If you know, you know,” he wrote on Facebook.

The statement sparked speculation, with many interpreting it as a jab at the authenticity of President Ruto’s support for Raila’s AU bid. Others saw it as a reflection of Babu’s disappointment, following yet another political loss for the veteran opposition leader.

What Did Babu Mean by ‘Long Con’?

The phrase “long con” is not new to Babu Owino’s political lexicon. The legislator first used it after the 2022 presidential election when Raila lost to Ruto despite backing from then-President Uhuru Kenyatta. At the time, Babu suggested that Uhuru’s support was insincere and that Raila had been misled into believing he had the establishment’s full backing.

By resurrecting the phrase in light of Raila’s AUC loss, Babu hinted at a similar scenario, suggesting that Ruto’s endorsement might have been more symbolic than strategic. Some political analysts speculate that the move could have been intended to portray Kenya’s unity on the continental stage, regardless of the eventual outcome.

Public Reactions: Mixed Feelings Online

Babu’s post quickly went viral, drawing mixed reactions from Kenyans online.

• “Ruto tried his best, but Raila couldn’t get the Francophone votes,” one user commented.
• “Babu is right; it was all political theater. Raila was set up to fail,” another posted.

Others, however, dismissed Babu’s sentiments as conspiracy theories, asserting that the loss was purely a numbers game and not a case of political betrayal.

AUC Election Breakdown: How Raila Lost

The AUC chairmanship race was a grueling, multi-round process that tested the candidates’ diplomatic appeal. Out of the 49 participating heads of state, a two-thirds majority—33 votes—was required for a win.

Here’s a breakdown of how the voting unfolded:

• Round 1: Raila led with 20 votes, followed by Youssouf with 18, and Madagascar’s Richard Randiamandrato with 10.
• Round 2: Raila gained ground, securing 22 votes. Youssouf got 19, while Randiamandrato dropped to 7.
• Round 3: Youssouf took the lead for the first time with 23 votes, Raila got 20, and Randiamandrato was eliminated.
• Round 4: Youssouf expanded his lead to 25 votes against Raila’s 21.
• Round 5: Youssouf secured 26 votes, with Raila maintaining 21.
• Round 6: Raila gained one more vote (22) but was eliminated for failing to secure the majority.
• Round 7: Youssouf ran unopposed, winning with 33 votes.

Political Implications: Was Ruto’s Support Genuine?

Babu Owino’s statement has rekindled questions about the sincerity of President Ruto’s support for Raila’s candidacy. The president had publicly endorsed Raila, emphasizing Kenya’s commitment to a united and prosperous Africa. However, skeptics argue that the endorsement was a strategic move to strengthen Kenya’s diplomatic image rather than secure Raila’s victory.

On the other hand, government officials maintain that Ruto genuinely backed Raila, citing the extensive diplomatic efforts made to lobby for his candidacy.

The Road Ahead for Raila and ODM

With Raila’s AUC loss now official, the ODM Party faces critical decisions regarding its future leadership and strategic direction. Babu Owino’s remarks reflect the broader frustration among Raila’s supporters, who hoped that the AU position would mark a fitting capstone to his long political career.

As the dust settles, the conversation around the “long con” and the dynamics of the AU vote will likely persist, shaping Kenya’s political discourse in the months ahead.

Stay tuned to Nairobian for more updates on this developing story.