William Ruto Questions El Niño Forecast as Kenya Waits for Predicted Rains: ‘We’ve Been Waiting’
President William Ruto has questioned the reliability of rainfall forecasts after Kenya continued waiting for El Niño rains that had initially been expected to arrive earlier in the year.
Speaking at the Agriculture and Food Security Transformation Summit at Jamhuri Park in Nairobi on Thursday, October 8, Ruto used the delayed onset of the predicted rains to argue that Kenya must reduce its dependence on rain-fed agriculture.
The president said farmers could not afford to base production decisions on forecasts when the timing and intensity of rainfall remained uncertain.
“Relying on rainfall involves a lot of guesswork; you never know when it will rain,” Ruto said.
He pointed to the repeated changes in forecasts for the expected onset of El Niño, saying farmers had initially been told to expect the phenomenon in August before the anticipated arrival was pushed back.
“We have been waiting for El Niño, yet we don’t know exactly when it will arrive,” the president said, adding that the country had been left waiting as the predicted dates changed.
Ruto said the uncertainty demonstrated the need for a fundamental change in how agriculture is practised in Kenya.
“We need to move away from this kind of guesswork-based farming. We need to shift to a system where we can control our crop output,” he said.
Ruto urges farmers to reduce reliance on rainfall
The president’s remarks put irrigation and other controlled farming systems at the centre of his agricultural strategy.
Rather than leaving crop production entirely dependent on the timing of rainfall, Ruto urged farmers to adopt methods that give them greater control over when and how crops receive water.
His comments come as Kenya continues to monitor the potential effects of El Niño and associated weather patterns, with authorities previously warning that heavy rainfall could create significant flooding risks.
Earlier warnings raised concerns over floods
The debate over the timing of the rains comes against a backdrop of earlier warnings from Kenya’s meteorological authorities.
In June, the Kenya Meteorological Department reported a high probability of El Niño conditions persisting through the year. Forecast models indicated that the phenomenon could reach at least moderate strength, with the possibility of becoming stronger.
The October-November-December rainfall season was also expected to bring enhanced rainfall across Kenya, while a potentially positive Indian Ocean Dipole was identified as a factor that could further influence rainfall patterns.
By September, authorities had identified several forms of flooding that could affect communities, including urban, river and flash flooding.
A preliminary government assessment estimated that around 1.5 million people across all 47 counties could potentially be affected.
Nairobi was among the areas highlighted for particular attention, with the Nairobi, Mathare and Mbagathi rivers being monitored because of the potential for flooding.
Authorities also identified hundreds of potentially vulnerable locations within the capital.
Other areas previously flagged as being at risk included parts of Mombasa, Kisumu, the lower Tana River basin, Narok and several northern counties, including Turkana, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit and Garissa.
El Niño uncertainty leaves farmers watching the skies
Ruto’s comments underline one of Kenya’s long-standing agricultural challenges: a large part of food production remains exposed to variations in rainfall.
For farmers, uncertainty over the timing of rains can complicate decisions over planting, irrigation, fertiliser application and harvesting.
The president’s message was therefore not simply about one delayed weather event but about reducing the vulnerability of Kenya’s food system to unpredictable weather.
With meteorological agencies continuing to monitor El Niño conditions and their possible consequences, the government faces the challenge of preparing for both sides of the forecast — rainfall that arrives later or differently than expected, and potentially heavy rains that could trigger widespread flooding.
For Ruto, the answer is greater investment in irrigation and agricultural systems that allow farmers to rely less on the weather.
The president’s intervention comes as Kenyans continue to watch for the rains that had been widely anticipated — while authorities remain alert to the possibility that when they arrive, they could bring a very different set of challenges.
Other News: HELB releases five new student loan batches as thousands await funding – how to check your status
