CBK Warns of Possible Price Increases for Milk, Maize Flour and Sugar in Kenya

The Central Bank of Kenya says prolonged dry weather, higher fuel prices and rising transport costs could push up the prices of several essential food items in the coming weeks.

The cost of essential food items in Kenya could rise in the coming weeks, with fresh milk, maize flour, wheat flour, sugar and garden peas among the commodities facing increased price pressures, according to the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK).

In its September 2026 Agriculture Sector Survey, released on Wednesday, October 21, the central bank linked the anticipated increases to prolonged dry weather, higher fuel prices and rising transportation costs.

The survey gathered views from 466 farmers, retailers and wholesalers, examining expectations for food prices in the near term.

Fresh packeted milk recorded a particularly sharp increase in expectations of higher prices, with 74% of respondents anticipating a rise.

Expectations of higher prices for white wheat flour increased from 29% in August to 48% in September. For fortified maize flour, the proportion rose from 31% to 47% over the same period.

Expectations of Higher Maize Flour and Sugar Prices

The survey also pointed to growing concerns over the cost of sifted maize flour, a staple in many Kenyan households.

The proportion of respondents expecting its price to rise increased from 19% in August to 40% in September.

For sugar, the figure climbed from 15% to 28%, indicating broader expectations of higher food prices as households continue to face cost-of-living pressures.

Garden peas were also among the commodities for which respondents anticipated price increases in October and subsequent months.

The findings reflect expectations among market participants rather than confirmed price increases across all retail outlets.

Dry Weather and Transport Costs Drive Price Concerns

The CBK survey identified weather conditions, transport expenses and agricultural input costs as the leading factors influencing retail food prices.

According to the report, 97% of respondents identified weather conditions as a factor affecting prices, while 92% cited transportation costs and 80% pointed to the cost of agricultural inputs.

Middlemen and brokers were identified by 62% of respondents as influencing retail prices, while 58% cited disruptions in global supply chains.

These factors can affect food availability and the cost of moving produce from farms to wholesale markets and retail outlets.

Poor Long Rains Season Adds Pressure on Milk Supply

The report also highlighted the impact of the March-May 2026 long rains season, which was described as depressed.

The unfavourable weather affected pasture availability and contributed to milk supply shortages, putting upward pressure on milk prices.

Reduced pasture availability can increase the cost of feeding livestock and affect milk production, while transportation expenses add to the cost of delivering dairy products to consumers.

The survey’s findings therefore point to a combination of supply-side and distribution costs behind the increased expectations of higher food prices.

What the CBK Survey Means for Kenyan Consumers

The central bank’s findings suggest that food-price pressures could persist in the near term, particularly for commodities affected by weather conditions and energy costs.

The report stated: “The Balance of Opinion (BOO) from the September 2026 survey indicates relatively more pronounced expectations for price increases across most of the sampled food commodities one month ahead,”

It added: “Overall, the findings suggest increased price expectations for sampled core food commodities in the near term, reflecting the role of weather conditions and energy costs in influencing price expectations in the near term,”

However, the survey measures the expectations of farmers, retailers and wholesalers. It does not establish that every listed commodity will increase in price or specify the exact amount consumers may pay.

The coming weeks will provide a clearer indication of whether the anticipated increases translate into higher prices in Kenyan markets.

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